The 2024 EU Parliament elections marked a significant political shift to the right in all jurisdictions, including Italy, where the results show a consolidation of power by the right-wing parties close to the Government. In particular, Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia), led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, won more than 28% of the vote. The Leage (Lega), another Government stakeholder, has lost lot of ground but still secured its key position in the majority with around 9% of the vote. Finally, Forza Italia won around 9-10% as well and remained stable despite the recent death of its founder, Silvio Berlusconi, which had brought to doubts about its capability to remain alive.

On the other side, the centre-left Democratic Party won the second highest result with 24% of the vote, while the remaining opposition parties obtained results below initial expectations. The 5-Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle) obtained around 10% of the vote (its worst results ever) and remaining center-left forces Italia Viva (founded by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi) and Azione even remained under the 4% threshold, thus without electing any Member of the EU Parliament. Finally, the more radical left (Sinistra Italiana), which was running together with the Green Party, obtained almost 7% of the vote, which represent an unexpected and successful result.

Implications for business regulation

With the right-wing coalition securing a majority, several key trends and policies are likely to emerge:

1. Strengthened position in G7: Italy’s stronger right-wing Government will likely bolster its position in the upcoming G7 summit, which Italy is hosting this month. Prime Minister Meloni is expected to leverage this platform to push for policies that favour national sovereignty over EU integration. This may be supported, for the first time, by the newly established right-wing forces in France and German.

2. Business regulation: Since the establishment of Giorgia Meloni’s Government in October 2022, we are facing a political scenario inclined at protecting local businesses through increased regulation of innovative services. For instance the Government and public authorities are protecting taxi against e-hailing platforms, raising requirements for minors’ protection online, posing limitations for short term rentals to protect hotels, etc.

3. Uncertain support for EU Commission President: One significant uncertainty remains the position of Brothers of Italy regarding the support for the next EU Commission President. Giorgia Meloni has indeed commented that “It’s too soon to give an answer” regarding a potential second term for Ursula von der Leyen or other alliances in the European Parliament.

Overall, the 2024 EU Parliament elections have reinforced Italy's conservative stance, suggesting more government intervention in the business sector to protect national interests. This could lead to a more complex regulatory environment for multinational corporations operating in Italy but also provide a boost to local businesses through targeted government support.

Authored by Valerio Natale.